Written by Eme Dean-Lewis, a Doctoral Researcher in the University of Reading.
Brazil’s declared focus for COP30[1] in Belém this month is agreement on the implementation of decisions previously made by the 198 ‘parties’ to the UNFCCC[2] (197 countries plus the European Union). These decisions include the agreement of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance. After the excitement of the ‘finance COP’ in Baku last year, some consider this implementation focus a less ambitious goal. But is it? In the COPCAS[3] studio we discussed this question with Professor Bernd Vogel, a leadership expert at Henley Centre for Leadership, Henley Business School.
Many developing countries left COP29 disappointed at the outcome although it included a promise by developed countries, of NCQG funding of $300 billion per year, with up to $1.3 trillion per year to be ‘mobilised’ by 2035[4]. This was earmarked for developing countries’ mitigation and adaptation projects. Mitigation involves preventing further planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), e.g. from burning coal. Adaptation involves addressing climate changes already upon us for example strengthening coastal flood defences as sea levels rise. Mobilisation implies that private sector loans, requiring repayment, as well as grants will be made available.
The fact that an NCQG was agreed at all was seen as a success of COP29. However, the history of agreements at annual COP meetings includes too many examples of pledges being made but not followed through effectively. A promise to provide climate finance of $100 billion per year by 202[5] was made in 2009 at COP15 in Copenhagen5. 2022 was the first year this amount was provided, despite the eleven year preparation period. An agreement for a ‘Loss and Damage fund’ “to compensate for existing impacts of climate change in developing countries” 4 was made at COP28 in Dubai but by the end of COP29 no plans were in place describing how, and to whom, funds would be distributed.
So, we discussed with Professor Vogel, was it more ambitious for world leaders to pledge some future benefit or to plan the implementation of what has already been agreed? His view is that implementation is both ambitious and exciting. It means the steps needed to do what was promised have been identified; criteria to measure when, or whether, target outcomes have been achieved are agreed; and that tasks have been completed. Only implementation can actually deliver the hoped-for outcomes towards climate mitigation and adaption for those who need them urgently.
Bernd reminded us that in business and politics, the implementation of existing projects is often seen as less glamorous than starting a new project. He also hears from diverse organisations that it is their priority, yet to some also their Achilles heel. Implementation is hard and complicated work. When 198 parties with differing needs and opinions need to agree the plan, it is even more challenging. Announcing a new project with others unfinished may distract effort and result in further delay. In short, while new initiatives may be needed eventually, when there are major, complex projects already promised, implementing them is the pragmatic route to achieving the benefits and show some proof of concept for the COP mechanism.
Reflecting on our discussion with Professor Vogel, we concluded that Brazil’s focus on implementation is far from being a ‘cop out’. Brazil demonstrates global leadership by taking a practical, if difficult, approach to the NCQG. Addressing the climate emergency by putting in place implementation processes and structures will lead to both mitigation of GHG emissions and adaptation to climate changes already baked-in. Implementation of the NCQG will directly help minimise global warming and so reduce climate change risks. As COP30 progresses, look out for evidence of implementation plans being agreed by all the parties. That will be a success worth celebrating.
[1] The thirtieth annual meeting of the Council of the Parties
[2] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, agreed in 1992
[3] COP30 Climate Action Studio, run by The Pearl for University of Reading PhD students
[4] COP 29 Key outcomes and next steps for the UK, Climate Change Committee (2024)
[5] The UK and the US$100 billion climate finance goal, House of Commons Library (2024)