13 July 2026; 13:00-14:00 GMT+1
Presenter: Dr Joseph Daron
Biography
Joe is a Science Manager in the Climate Services Development team within International Applied Science & Services at the Met Office. The team works with partners and organisations from across the world to co-develop and deliver climate services, helping to address the risks associated with climate variability and change. Joe’s focus is on the development of climate services in Africa and Asia. He holds a joint position as a Senior Research Fellow in the Faculty of Science at the University of Bristol, through the Met Office Academic Partnership (MOAP). Joe is currently the Senior Supplier and UK Lead Scientist for the Weather and Climate Science for Service Partnership (WCSSP) South Africa project, and is a Lead Author on the IPCC AR7 report for WGI Chapter 10: Climate Information and Services.
Paper/article presented
Title: Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022
Authors: Potter et al., (2025)
Link to paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105234
LinkedIn: Dr Joseph Daron
Slides presented: Joseph Daron – MCRILG Talk
Session Highlights
Joe Daron’s presentation focused on the growing importance of climate services and impact-based forecasting in a world where climate change is increasingly experienced through extreme weather events. He argued that the traditional distinction between climate and weather is becoming less useful because people now encounter climate change primarily through extreme events such as heatwaves, floods and droughts.
A key message throughout the talk was that climate information only becomes valuable when it is connected to real-world decision-making. Joe emphasised that climate services are not simply about producing forecasts or projections but about ensuring that information is relevant, accessible and usable within specific social, economic and environmental contexts. Drawing on his experience working in Africa and Asia, he highlighted the importance of understanding local realities and engaging directly with those who use climate information.
The presentation stressed the importance of co-production as a central principle of effective climate services. Scientists, policymakers, practitioners and communities must work together to develop information that meets user needs. Joe noted that the field is moving away from one-way communication towards more participatory and dialogue-based approaches that encourage collaboration and knowledge exchange.
A major theme was the development of impact-based forecasting. Unlike traditional forecasts that focus primarily on meteorological conditions such as temperature or rainfall, impact-based approaches seek to communicate the likely consequences of weather events for people, infrastructure, transport systems, health services and other sectors. This approach combines information about the likelihood of an event with an assessment of its potential impacts, allowing users to make more informed decisions.
Joe used recent UK heatwaves as an example of why impact-based forecasting is increasingly necessary. While record temperatures attract media attention, the wider concern is the impact on health, emergency services and critical infrastructure. He highlighted that warnings must not only be scientifically accurate but also understandable and actionable if they are to support effective responses.
The presentation also reviewed findings from international workshops on high-impact weather. Several recurring challenges were identified, including communicating uncertainty, evaluating impacts, defining responsibilities across institutions, tailoring information to different user groups and ensuring effective collaboration between organisations. Many of these challenges are equally relevant for weather forecasting and longer-term climate services.
A substantial part of the talk focused on Joe’s work developing impact-based seasonal outlooks. He argued that traditional seasonal forecasts often focus too heavily on the most likely climate outcome, such as above-average or below-average rainfall, without adequately considering the consequences associated with those outcomes. To address this, he presented the Seasonal IMpact-Based OutLook (SIMBOL) method (see Daron et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100579).